Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 67

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to ARI 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for 9 yards (39-E.Penny). PENALTY on ARI-20-T.Brock Sr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27. Officially, a return for 3 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model