Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 17 – New York Giants 14

(11:23) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-G.Tate to NYG 32 for 17 yards (50-B.Reed; 46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.57 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model