Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 67

New York Giants 21 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 23 for -10 yards (21-P.Peterson). FUMBLES (21-P.Peterson) [21-P.Peterson], RECOVERED by ARI-43-H.Reddick at NYG 20. 43-H.Reddick to NYG 17 for 3 yards (76-N.Solder). ARI-43-H.Reddick was injured during the play. Officially, a sack for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.72 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP