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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 17 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 4-A.Lee punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP