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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 24 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 4-A.Lee punts 29 yards to NYG 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.08 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP