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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 39

New York Giants 14 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate to ARI 24 for 15 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model