4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 96

Arizona Cardinals 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 31-M.Thomas, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by NYG-39-E.Penny at ARI -9. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.93 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 96, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 53, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model