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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model