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Tennessee Titans

2-4 HC Mike Vrabel
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Denver Broncos

2-4 HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 16:25 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TEN
43.5%
DEN
56.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21 14–28
–
DEN 22 15–29
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

TEN

Sharif Finch LB Out Shoulder
Cameron Wake LB Out Hamstring
Chris Milton CB Questionable Calf
Rod Smith RB Questionable Groin

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot
Duke Dawson CB Questionable Foot
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee
Trey Marshall S Questionable Lower leg

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 0
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:19 FG DEN (10:19) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. TEN 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 04:42 FG DEN (4:42) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. TEN 0 – DEN 6
  • Q3 04:59 TD DEN (4:59) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – DEN 12
  • Q4 04:57 FG DEN (4:57) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. TEN 0 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to DEN 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to TEN 45 for 42 yards (31-K.Byard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (10:19) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:51) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 12 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:55) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to TEN 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-T.Marshall.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 29%

    (2:07) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to TEN 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:00) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:41) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:32) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 65%

    (4:42) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 16 for 1 yard (29-D.Cruikshank).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 20 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:59) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to TEN 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 48 for 7 yards (36-T.Marshall).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 25%

    (:20) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 27%

    (10:59) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 56 yards to TEN 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 14 for 1 yard (26-I.Yiadom, 19-F.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:26) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:37) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to TEN 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

    (12:44) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to DEN 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:48) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to DEN 47, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to DEN 36 for 11 yards (56-C.Nelson, 59-M.Reed).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (9:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at DEN 21 for -8 yards (57-D.Walker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%

    (4:57) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 82-De.Walker INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson at DEN 3. 22-K.Jackson to DEN 27 for 24 yards (84-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →