TEN @ DEN — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Vrabel

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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio

Sunday 2019-10-13 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TEN

42.0%

DEN

58.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

TEN offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
DEN offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
TEN defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21

–

DEN 22

Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

TEN

Sharif Finch LB Out Shoulder

Cameron Wake LB Out Hamstring

Chris Milton CB Questionable Calf

Rod Smith RB Questionable Groin

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot

Duke Dawson CB Questionable Foot

Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee

Trey Marshall S Questionable Lower leg

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 0

–

DEN 16

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:19 FG DEN (10:19) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. TEN 0 – DEN 3
Q2 04:42 FG DEN (4:42) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. TEN 0 – DEN 6
Q3 04:59 TD DEN (4:59) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – DEN 12
Q4 04:57 FG DEN (4:57) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. TEN 0 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to DEN 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to TEN 45 for 42 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

(10:19) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(8:51) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 12 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(5:55) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to TEN 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-T.Marshall.
Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 29%

(2:07) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 76

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP

p(convert) 70%

(15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to TEN 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(12:00) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 79

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 54%

(10:41) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(7:32) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 35

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 65%

(4:42) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 16 for 1 yard (29-D.Cruikshank).
Q2 DEN 4th & 20 at the 94

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(:59) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to TEN 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 48 for 7 yards (36-T.Marshall).
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 25%

(:20) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 27%

(10:59) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 69

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP

p(convert) 70%

(9:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 56 yards to TEN 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 14 for 1 yard (26-I.Yiadom, 19-F.Brown).
Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:26) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(:37) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to TEN 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

(12:44) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to DEN 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.
Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 97

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(11:48) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to DEN 47, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to DEN 36 for 11 yards (56-C.Nelson, 59-M.Reed).
Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

(9:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at DEN 21 for -8 yards (57-D.Walker).
Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 30 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%

(4:57) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 12 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

(1:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 82-De.Walker INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson at DEN 3. 22-K.Jackson to DEN 27 for 24 yards (84-C.Davis).