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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 30

Denver Broncos 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.62 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model