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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model