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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 76

Denver Broncos 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to TEN 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP