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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 97

Denver Broncos 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to DEN 47, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to DEN 36 for 11 yards (56-C.Nelson, 59-M.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 97, worth -6.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model