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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to DEN 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model