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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model