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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 12

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 82-De.Walker INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson at DEN 3. 22-K.Jackson to DEN 27 for 24 yards (84-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP