Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 94

Denver Broncos 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

(:59) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to TEN 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 48 for 7 yards (36-T.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.77 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 94, worth -5.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model