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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 12 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model