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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
35.0%
DAL
65.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.210 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB on 3 more days rest than DAL
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.108 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

GB

Davante Adams WR Out Toe
Tony Brown CB Out Hamstring
Jamaal Williams RB Out Concussion
Kevin King CB Doubtful Groin
Montravius Adams DE Questionable Shoulder
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Shoulder
Oren Burks LB Questionable Chest
Kyler Fackrell LB Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Tyron Smith T Out Ankle
La'el Collins T Questionable Back
Tyrone Crawford DE Questionable Hip
Michael Gallup WR Questionable Knee
Antwaun Woods DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 34
–
DAL 24

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:03 TD GB (9:03) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 00:07 TD GB (:07) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DAL 0
  • Q2 02:23 FG GB (2:23) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 17 – DAL 0
  • Q3 09:38 TD GB (9:38) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – DAL 0
  • Q3 05:58 FG DAL (5:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. GB 24 – DAL 3
  • Q3 03:34 TD GB (3:34) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – DAL 3
  • Q3 02:09 TD DAL (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-K.Keke]. GB 31 – DAL 9
  • Q4 13:56 TD DAL (13:56) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 31 – DAL 16
  • Q4 08:11 FG GB (8:11) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 34 – DAL 17
  • Q4 07:56 TD DAL (7:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 34 – DAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:40) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-43-H.Bradley. 10-T.Austin to DAL 25 for -1 yards (25-W.Redmond).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:22) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to DAL 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 10-T.Austin to DAL 31 for 10 yards (13-A.Lazard).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (8:27) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to GB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (2:23) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 67%

    (:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DAL 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:34) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to GB 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-53-J.March-Lillard.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (5:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:27) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 45 yards to DAL 30, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:37) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to DAL 34, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (8:11) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (1:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.