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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP