Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DAL 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.43 EP
69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -1.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model