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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 31 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP