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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-43-H.Bradley. 10-T.Austin to DAL 25 for -1 yards (25-W.Redmond).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model