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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to GB 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-53-J.March-Lillard.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.66 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP