4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model