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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.58 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model