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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to GB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP