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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

ARI
29.3%
CIN
70.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.005 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.108 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Neck
Dennis Gardeck LB Out Ankle
Christian Kirk WR Out Ankle
Charles Washington S Out Shoulder
Jordan Mills T Out Knee
Damiere Byrd WR Questionable Hamstring
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Back
Ezekiel Turner LB Questionable Hand
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Back
Andy Lee P Questionable right Hip
Justin Pugh G Questionable Shoulder

CIN

Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
John Ross WR Out Sternoclavicular
Kerry Wynn DE Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26
–
CIN 23

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 FG CIN (8:31) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. ARI 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 03:46 TD ARI (3:46) 1-K.Murray left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CIN 3
  • Q2 05:13 FG ARI (5:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 10 – CIN 3
  • Q2 03:32 FG CIN (3:32) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. ARI 10 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 13 – CIN 6
  • Q3 08:38 FG CIN (8:38) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. ARI 13 – CIN 9
  • Q4 13:28 FG ARI (13:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 16 – CIN 9
  • Q4 07:21 TD ARI (7:21) (Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 22 – CIN 9
  • Q4 04:11 TD CIN (4:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 19-A.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – CIN 15
  • Q4 02:08 TD CIN (2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – CIN 22
  • Q4 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 26 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:18) (Punt formation) 9-R.Winslow punts 54 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 10 yards (38-C.Banjo).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (8:31) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (3:46) 1-K.Murray left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:27) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 31 for 7 yards (57-G.Pratt). PENALTY on ARI-38-C.Banjo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 31.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (13:00) 5-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:16) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 76%

    (3:32) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (8:38) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 50%

    (4:55) 9-R.Winslow punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton right guard to CIN 42 for no gain (43-H.Reddick).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (13:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:35) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to ARI 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 45 for 30 yards (29-T.McRae). PENALTY on ARI-37-D.Foster, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 32.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:52) 9-R.Winslow punts 55 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-T.Boyd to CIN 19 for -1 yards (16-T.Sherfield).