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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton right guard to CIN 42 for no gain (43-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model