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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP