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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 9-R.Winslow punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model