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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP