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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model