Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(14:18) (Punt formation) 9-R.Winslow punts 54 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 10 yards (38-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model