Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to ARI 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 45 for 30 yards (29-T.McRae). PENALTY on ARI-37-D.Foster, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model