Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 31 for 7 yards (57-G.Pratt). PENALTY on ARI-38-C.Banjo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.99 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model