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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP