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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Thursday 2019-09-12 · 20:20 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

TB
41.5%
CAR
58.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
CAR 24
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TB

Blaine Gabbert QB Out left Shoulder

CAR

Bruce Irvin DE Out Hamstring
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Back
Rashaan Gaulden S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
CAR 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:40 FG TB (5:40) 9-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 02:56 FG CAR (2:56) 4-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 08:30 FG CAR (8:30) 4-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 3 – CAR 6
  • Q2 01:25 TD TB (1:25) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 10 – CAR 9
  • Q3 07:58 FG CAR (7:58) 4-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 10 – CAR 12
  • Q3 04:25 TD TB (4:25) 25-P.Barber up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – CAR 12
  • Q4 13:30 SAF CAR (13:30) 25-P.Barber left end tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (59-L.Kuechly). TB 17 – CAR 14
  • Q4 02:30 FG TB (2:30) 9-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 20 – CAR 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to CAR 12, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 10. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 10 for no gain (82-A.Auclair; 51-K.Minter).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%

    (5:40) 9-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (2:56) 4-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:51) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 25, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at CAR 26, recovered by CAR-26-D.Jackson at CAR 23. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 22 for -1 yards (26-S.Bunting).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson pushed ob at CAR 30 for 48 yards (5-M.Palardy). PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 32.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:06) 8-B.Pinion punts 63 yards to CAR 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to TB 42 for 39 yards (97-Z.Triner).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (8:30) 4-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:44) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-48-J.Cichy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to TB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 28. 85-B.Wilson to TB 28 for no gain (30-N.Jamerson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (13:29) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:31) 8-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to CAR 48, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to 50 for 2 yards (82-A.Auclair). TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 48.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 87%

    (:02) 9-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (13:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to TB 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-30-N.Jamerson.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 42%

    (11:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Samuel.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 33 for 11 yards (15-C.Hogan).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (2:30) 9-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.