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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 4-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.91 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP