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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.04 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model