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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:51) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 25, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at CAR 26, recovered by CAR-26-D.Jackson at CAR 23. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 22 for -1 yards (26-S.Bunting).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP