Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to TB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 28. 85-B.Wilson to TB 28 for no gain (30-N.Jamerson).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.16 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model