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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 45
Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
What Actually Happened
(11:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Samuel.
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.73 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
KICK
-0.81 EP
- 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
