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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.07 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model