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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 9-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP