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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.13 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model