Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 82

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

(10:06) 8-B.Pinion punts 63 yards to CAR 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to TB 42 for 39 yards (97-Z.Triner).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model