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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Thursday 2019-09-05 · 20:20 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
40.3%
CHI
59.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Mitch Trubisky (CHI): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Oren Burks LB Out Chest
Darrius Shepherd WR Out Hamstring
Ka'dar Hollman CB Questionable Neck

CHI

Trey Burton TE Questionable Groin
Rashaad Coward T Questionable Elbow
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 10
–
CHI 3

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:14 FG CHI (4:14) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 0 – CHI 3
  • Q2 13:15 TD GB (13:15) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. GB 6 – CHI 3
  • Q4 05:20 FG GB (5:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 10 – CHI 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to CHI 32, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 43 for 11 yards (31-A.Amos).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 36%

    (9:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to GB 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:04) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to GB 47, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to GB 41 for 6 yards (44-T.Summers; 51-K.Fackrell). PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at GB 41.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (4:14) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:20) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 8.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-T.Davis to GB 26 for 1 yard (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 47%

    (11:20) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to GB 4, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:37) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 23%

    (:55) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 36 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-43-H.Bradley.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to GB 33, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to GB 34, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to GB 42, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 20 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to CHI 18, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 23 for 5 yards (30-J.Williams).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 68%

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles up the middle to GB 30 for 3 yards (24-R.Greene).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 25%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to CHI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%

    (5:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 10, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 24 for 14 yards (31-A.Amos). PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 5 for -11 yards (91-P.Smith).