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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 41

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to GB 4, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.47 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP