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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 10, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 24 for 14 yards (31-A.Amos). PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model